Description

The Visitor Rooms Projection Module uses estimates (from the year 2000) and projections (from 2015 and 2025) for hotel/motel rooms. This simulation was prepared in April 2004 by the Hillsborough County City-County Planning Commission for Plant City, Tampa, Temple Terrace and Unincorporated Hillsborough County.

For the 2007 initial estimate, the FIELD model uses a value interpolated between the 2000 estimate and the 2015 projections. For the 2027 projection, the FIELD model performs estimates based on the linear trend between 2015 and 2025. Furthermore, the FIELD model uses the difference between the 2027 projection and the 2007 estimate to find the tourist growth that must be accommodated by the future land use plan.

In the Visitor Rooms Projection Module, the initial value of visitor rooms (hotel/motel rooms) for each jurisdiction at the beginning of the simulation (base year) is represented by the variable initial visitor rooms as shown in the above table. The annual change in visitor rooms variable is computed for each jurisdiction from the difference between the 2027 projection and 2007 estimate as explained above. The annual change thus calculated is then added to the initial visitor rooms variable to obtain visitor rooms projections for each year of the simulation. The cumulative change in visitor rooms variable stores the cumulative tourist growth to be accommodated within the respective jurisdictions during the simulation period.

The table in the figure above shows the following variables:

• Initial Visitor Rooms

• Annual Change in Visitor Rooms

• Visitor Rooms (for the last year of the simulation)

• Cumulative Change in Visitor Rooms (for the entire simulation period)
  

The graph below shows the cumulative visitor rooms for the entire simulation period (2007 to 2027). The value is shown at the top-right corner of the graph. The jurisdiction for this graph can be selected from the drop-down menu on the top-left side of the graph.

Equations and Variables Used

• Initial Visitor Rooms (for each jurisdiction)

• Annual Change in Visitor Rooms (for each jurisdiction)

• Visitor Rooms (for each jurisdiction at the end of a simulation year)

• Cumulative Change in Visitor Rooms = Visitor Rooms - Initial Visitor Rooms