Description

On September 22, 2006, housing estimates spanning 1970 through 2006 were prepared by the Hillsborough County City-County Planning Commission for Plant City, Tampa, Temple Terrace, and Unincorporated Hillsborough County.

The initial housing values for 2007 in the FIELD model were based on the 2006 estimate plus a 1/19th share of the housing change between the 2006 estimate and the 2025 projection (ref: Evaluation and Appraisal Reports). Projections for 2026 and 2027 were generated by extrapolating the linear trend from 2006 through 2025. The FIELD model uses the difference between the 2027 projection and the 2007 estimate as the housing growth that must be accommodated by the future land use plan.

The Dwelling Units Employment Projections Module of the FIELD model is shown above. The number of dwelling units for each jurisdiction at the beginning of the simulation (base year) is represented under initial dwelling units, as seen in the table above. The annual DU change variable is computed for each jurisdiction by subtracting the projected dwelling units for the year 2027 from the number of dwelling units for the base year of the model. Next, this value is divided by the number of years of the simulation (in this case, 20). This is then added to the initial dwelling units to obtain dwelling unit projections for each year of the simulation. Cumulative dwelling units change variable stores the cumulative employment change for all the jurisdictions.

The table in the figure above shows initial dwelling units, annual change (in dwelling units), dwelling units (for the last year of the simulation) and cumulative change (in dwelling units for the entire simulation period). The dwelling unit figures shown in the table can be broken down by housing types using the drop down menu above the table.

The graph below shows the cumulative dwelling units change from the base year of the simulation (2007) to the last year (2027). The value is shown at the top right-hand corner of the graph. The jurisdiction for this graph can be selected from the drop-down menu on the top left-hand side of the graph.

Equations and Variables Used

• Initial Dwelling Units (2007 Dwelling Units by type for each jurisdiction)

• Annual DU Change (by type for each jurisdiction)

• Dwelling Units (2027 Dwelling Units for each jurisdiction)

• Cumulative Dwelling Units Change = Dwelling Units - Initial Dwelling Units